‘Anti-immigration candidates failed in the real world proving online support is no guarantee of success in a general election.’
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#ge2024
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I thought I knew who would be on Friday’s ballot paper from looking at posters on poles, and from leaflets through the letterbox (only one candidate has turned up in person). But using #WhichCandidate I realised about a 1/3 of the candidates in my constituency are unpreferrable to me in every way, and about 3 or 4 were unknown to me. WhichCandidate helped me make a plan for Friday #IrePol #IrishPol #GE2024 #DBN #Mastodaoine #GE24 #IrelandVotes
From: @lexiconista
https://mastodon.ie/@lexiconista/113545287758245995
mastodon.ieMichal Měchura (@lexiconista@mastodon.ie)The best-spent fifteen minutes before the election: https://whichcandidate.ie/
@denmanrooke@mastodon.ieAnother Ireland is Possible.
One in which ordinary people are put first above the profits of landlords, vulture funds, and big business.
But to do so we must end 100 years of FF/FG rule.
People Before Profit are the only party that have ruled out voting for Harris or Martin as Taoiseach.
In Galway West a vote for Maisie McMaster No. 1 is the strongest message you can send that you want a Left government instead.
GIF
@AnthonyFStevens@mastodon.online
@denmanrooke@mastodon.ieWith the announcement of our Galway West candidate, Maisie McMaster, we’ve now launched our Election Campaign Fund over on GoFundMe.
We are not funded by business or landlord interests, so we need all the support from ordinary people like you.
https://www.gofundme.com/f/elect-maisie-mcmaster-galway-west
@angiebaby@mas.toIf you're voting in Oklahoma County, Oklahoma, and you have no idea how to vote on everything else on the ballot but you're a Democrat or an independent voter who historically votes Democrat:
UK Pol but no CW as this is a bit of fun.
Matt Parker, aka Stand Up Maths was the count agent for Count Binface in this years general election ant this is his views om how the count happened.
A really good view of it and how the votes went - also on how his "accvurate" graphs on flyers were to the results
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-hdJIWsK3A&ab_channel=Stand-upMaths
If Wikipedia is to be believed, Tony Blair is seven months *older* than Sir John Curtice. I would have bet good money at short odds against the opposite being true.
I've even gone out of my way to look for apparently recent video of Blair to see what he now looks like, and I still find it difficult to believe.
(Side note: I'd forgotten that Tony Blair had been knighted, but then again, nor do I usually refer to Sir Lewis Hamilton or Sir Andy Murray as such.)
This is an awful account of the racism and abuse Jovan Owusu-Nepaul, the Labour candidate in Clacton, suffered from Reform supporters. It was not helped by Labour abandoning him and instructing him not to campaign. He said he faced vitriol from Reform supporters, including being asked repeatedly where he was “really from”.
#ReformUK #Racism #Fascism #Clacton #GE2024 #LabourParty #UKPolitics
The Guardian · Labour candidate defeated by Farage reveals safety fears during campaign
ѦਹѤʞ 
All the #GE2024 seats are declared and votes counted.
Here are some pie charts illustrating what Bridget Philipson, the UK’s new Minister for Education, yesterday described as going from the “worst” Labour result in 2019 to the “best ever” result in 2024.
All the other MRP polls were pretty far off the mark, but the wooden spoon goes to #Savanta who were absolutely miles off the mark across the board:
Labour: -105
Conservatives: +68
Liberal Democrats: +22
SNP: +1
Reform UK: +5
Plaid Cymru: 0
Greens: +4
They also had terrible accuracy for individual seats and the worst website writeup:
Savanta - Savanta · Savanta’s first MRP of election campaign predicts Labour on for majority of 382 - SavantaSavanta, in partnership with Electoral Calculus and the Telegraph, today publishes our first MRP model of the 2024 General Election based on 17,812 respondents conducted online between 7th and 18th June 2024.
The next closest MRP, by some margin, was #JLPartners.
Difference in number of seats won by a party compared to their final MRP projection:
Labour: -31 Conservatives: +10 Liberal Democrats: +14 SNP: -6 Reform UK: +4 Plaid Cymru: +1 Greens: +3
However, their individual constituency estimates were noticeably worse than YouGov's.
You can see JL Partners' final MRP here: https://jlpartners.co.uk/final-jl-partners-srp-model-project-labour-winning-442-seats
JLPFinal J.L. Partners SRP Model Project Labour Winning 442 Seats — JLP
You can view the final #YouGov MRP projection here:
The actual results were also entirely within the upper and lower estimates by YouGov, and they also seem to have done best at predicting individual constituency results, with very few where the result was outside their margin of error.
Here are the actual results for comparison:
yougov.co.ukFinal YouGov MRP shows Labour on course for historic election victory | YouGovTory seat total would also be a record low
MRP POLL ACCURACY
I've been reviewing the various MRP polls to see which one was closest to the actual general election result and #YouGov is the very clear winner.
Difference in number of seats won by a party compared to their final MRP projection:
Labour: -19 Conservatives: +19 Liberal Democrats: 0 SNP: -11 Reform UK: +2 Plaid Cymru: +1 Greens: +2
GB POLLING: 2ND CHOICES FOR REFORM UK VOTERS
How people who voted Reform UK at the GE would have voted if Reform UK weren't an option, from poll by #MoreInCommon:
Conservatives: 36%
N/A - Did not consider voting for another party: 25% Labour: 16% Liberal Democrats: 9% Green Party: 7%
Another party: 5% Don't know: 7%
Conducted 5 July 2024.
I do think the funniest realisation I have had about #GE2024 #GeneralElection2024 is that all those Tories in #Wales who complained bitterly about #UBI and Twenty mph speed limits, have been obliterated. 
The last seats to declare:
Reform UK gain their fifth seat from the Conservatives in South Basildon & East Thurrock, with Labour in second place.
Inverness, Skye & West Rossshire now won't declare until Saturday (there was a discrepancy in the vote counting), but is apparently a definite Lib Dem gain from the SNP.