Pawb.Social Reports @transparency

Carole (Ducky)‘Anti-immigration candidates failed in the real world proving online support is no guarantee of success in a general election.’<a href="https://mastodon.ie/tags/GE24" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#GE24</a> <a href="https://mastodon.ie/tags/GE2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#GE2024</a><a href="https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/elections-2024/anti-immigration-candidates-failed-in-the-real-world-proving-online-support-is-no-guarantee-of-success-in-a-general-election/a626908427.html" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank">https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/elections-2024/anti-immigration-candidates-failed-in-the-real-world-proving-online-support-is-no-guarantee-of-success-in-a-general-election/a626908427.html</a>

Mark MaguireI thought I knew who would be on Friday’s ballot paper from looking at posters on poles, and from leaflets through the letterbox (only one candidate has turned up in person). But using <a href="https://mastodon.ie/tags/WhichCandidate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#WhichCandidate</a> I realised about a 1/3 of the candidates in my constituency are unpreferrable to me in every way, and about 3 or 4 were unknown to me. WhichCandidate helped me make a plan for Friday <a href="https://mastodon.ie/tags/IrePol" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#IrePol</a> <a href="https://mastodon.ie/tags/IrishPol" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#IrishPol</a> <a href="https://mastodon.ie/tags/GE2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#GE2024</a> <a href="https://mastodon.ie/tags/DBN" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#DBN</a> <a href="https://mastodon.ie/tags/Mastodaoine" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Mastodaoine</a> <a href="https://mastodon.ie/tags/GE24" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#GE24</a> <a href="https://mastodon.ie/tags/IrelandVotes" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#IrelandVotes</a> From: <a href="https://mastodon.ie/@lexiconista" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@lexiconista</a> <a href="https://mastodon.ie/@lexiconista/113545287758245995" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank">https://mastodon.ie/@lexiconista/113545287758245995</a>

Denman Rooke 🇵🇸Another Ireland is Possible.One in which ordinary people are put first above the profits of landlords, vulture funds, and big business.But to do so we must end 100 years of FF/FG rule.People Before Profit are the only party that have ruled out voting for Harris or Martin as Taoiseach.In Galway West a vote for Maisie McMaster No. 1 is the strongest message you can send that you want a Left government instead.<a href="https://mastodon.ie/tags/AnotherIrelandIsPossible" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#AnotherIrelandIsPossible</a> <a href="https://mastodon.ie/tags/GE2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#GE2024</a>

Anthony Stevens 🇪🇺 🇯🇲 💙<a href="https://mastodon.online/tags/Brexit" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Brexit</a>... The greatest con ever pulled on the <a href="https://mastodon.online/tags/UK" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#UK</a> public. We essentially imposed economic sanctions against ourselves. By adding <a href="https://mastodon.online/tags/immigration" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#immigration</a> to the equation, millions fell for <a href="https://mastodon.online/tags/Brexit" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Brexit</a>, but even after the unmitigated disaster it's become, millions STILL voted for <a href="https://mastodon.online/tags/Farage" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Farage</a> at <a href="https://mastodon.online/tags/GE2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#GE2024</a>! <a href="https://mastodon.online/tags/UnFuckinBeLIEvable" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#UnFuckinBeLIEvable</a> 🙄

Denman Rooke 🇵🇸With the announcement of our Galway West candidate, Maisie McMaster, we’ve now launched our Election Campaign Fund over on GoFundMe.We are not funded by business or landlord interests, so we need all the support from ordinary people like you.👉 <a href="https://www.gofundme.com/f/elect-maisie-mcmaster-galway-west" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank">https://www.gofundme.com/f/elect-maisie-mcmaster-galway-west</a><a href="https://mastodon.ie/tags/GE2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#GE2024</a> <a href="https://mastodon.ie/tags/Ireland" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Ireland</a> <a href="https://mastodon.ie/tags/Galway" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Galway</a> <a href="https://mastodon.ie/tags/PBP" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#PBP</a> <a href="https://mastodon.ie/tags/PeopleBeforeProfit" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#PeopleBeforeProfit</a> <a href="https://mastodon.ie/tags/Socialist" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Socialist</a> <a href="https://mastodon.ie/tags/EcoSocialism" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#EcoSocialism</a>

Angie 🇨🇦🇲🇽🇪🇺🇵🇸🇺🇦If you're voting in Oklahoma County, Oklahoma, and you have no idea how to vote on everything else on the ballot but you're a Democrat or an independent voter who historically votes Democrat:<a href="https://mas.to/tags/Oklahoma" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Oklahoma</a> <a href="https://mas.to/tags/OklahomaCounty" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#OklahomaCounty</a> <a href="https://mas.to/tags/GeneralElection" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#GeneralElection</a> <a href="https://mas.to/tags/GE2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#GE2024</a> <a href="https://mas.to/tags/Election2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Election2024</a> <a href="https://mas.to/tags/2024Election" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#2024Election</a>

Peter MountUK Pol but no CW as this is a bit of fun.Matt Parker, aka Stand Up Maths was the count agent for Count Binface in this years general election ant this is his views om how the count happened.A really good view of it and how the votes went - also on how his "accvurate" graphs on flyers were to the results<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-hdJIWsK3A&ab_channel=Stand-upMaths" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-hdJIWsK3A&ab_channel=Stand-upMaths</a><a href="https://area51.social/tags/generalElection" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#generalElection</a> <a href="https://area51.social/tags/ge2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ge2024</a> <a href="https://area51.social/tags/election" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#election</a> <a href="https://area51.social/tags/election2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#election2024</a>

Chris D.If Wikipedia is to be believed, Tony Blair is seven months *older* than Sir John Curtice. I would have bet good money at short odds against the opposite being true. I've even gone out of my way to look for apparently recent video of Blair to see what he now looks like, and I still find it difficult to believe.(Side note: I'd forgotten that Tony Blair had been knighted, but then again, nor do I usually refer to Sir Lewis Hamilton or Sir Andy Murray as such.)<a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/GE2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#GE2024</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/ukpol" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ukpol</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/ukpolitics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ukpolitics</a>

JuneSim63This is an awful account of the racism and abuse Jovan Owusu-Nepaul, the Labour candidate in Clacton, suffered from Reform supporters. It was not helped by Labour abandoning him and instructing him not to campaign. He said he faced vitriol from Reform supporters, including being asked repeatedly where he was “really from”.<a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/ReformUK" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ReformUK</a> <a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/Racism" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Racism</a> <a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/Fascism" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Fascism</a> <a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/Clacton" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Clacton</a> <a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/GE2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#GE2024</a> <a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/LabourParty" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#LabourParty</a> <a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/UKPolitics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#UKPolitics</a><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/07/clacton-labour-candidate-jovan-owusu-nepaul-reform-safety-fears-election-nigel-farage" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank">https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/07/clacton-labour-candidate-jovan-owusu-nepaul-reform-safety-fears-election-nigel-farage</a>

ƧƿѦςɛ♏ѦਹѤʞ<a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/cats" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#cats</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/GE2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#GE2024</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/No10" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#No10</a>

Mark Taylor<a href="https://mastodon.online/tags/GE2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#GE2024</a> <a href="https://mastodon.online/tags/UKPol" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#UKPol</a>

Jonathan SchofieldAll the <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/GE2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#GE2024</a> seats are declared and votes counted.Here are some pie charts illustrating what Bridget Philipson, the UK’s new Minister for Education, yesterday described as going from the “worst” Labour result in 2019 to the “best ever” result in 2024.

UK Election ResultsAll the other MRP polls were pretty far off the mark, but the wooden spoon goes to <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/Savanta" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Savanta</a> who were absolutely miles off the mark across the board:🔴 Labour: -105 🔵 Conservatives: +68 🟠 Liberal Democrats: +22 🟡 SNP: +1 ⚪ Reform UK: +5 🌻 Plaid Cymru: 0 🟢 Greens: +4They also had terrible accuracy for individual seats and the worst website writeup:<a href="https://savanta.com/knowledge-centre/view/savantas-first-mrp-of-election-campaign-predicts-labour-on-for-majority-of-382/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank">https://savanta.com/knowledge-centre/view/savantas-first-mrp-of-election-campaign-predicts-labour-on-for-majority-of-382/</a><a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/ukpol" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ukpol</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/ukpolitics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ukpolitics</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/ge2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ge2024</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/electionresults" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#electionresults</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/polling" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#polling</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/MRP" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#MRP</a>

UK Election ResultsThe next closest MRP, by some margin, was <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/JLPartners" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#JLPartners</a>. Difference in number of seats won by a party compared to their final MRP projection:🔴 Labour: -31 🔵 Conservatives: +10 🟠 Liberal Democrats: +14 🟡 SNP: -6 ⚪ Reform UK: +4 🌻 Plaid Cymru: +1 🟢 Greens: +3However, their individual constituency estimates were noticeably worse than YouGov's.You can see JL Partners' final MRP here: <a href="https://jlpartners.co.uk/final-jl-partners-srp-model-project-labour-winning-442-seats" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank">https://jlpartners.co.uk/final-jl-partners-srp-model-project-labour-winning-442-seats</a><a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/ukpol" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ukpol</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/ukpolitics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ukpolitics</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/ge2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ge2024</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/electionresults" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#electionresults</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/polling" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#polling</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/MRP" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#MRP</a>

UK Election ResultsYou can view the final <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/YouGov" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#YouGov</a> MRP projection here:<a href="https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49950-final-yougov-mrp-shows-labour-on-course-for-historic-election-victory" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank">https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49950-final-yougov-mrp-shows-labour-on-course-for-historic-election-victory</a>The actual results were also entirely within the upper and lower estimates by YouGov, and they also seem to have done best at predicting individual constituency results, with very few where the result was outside their margin of error.Here are the actual results for comparison:<a href="https://electionmaps.uk/ge2024" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank">https://electionmaps.uk/ge2024</a><a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/ukpol" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ukpol</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/ukpolitics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ukpolitics</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/ge2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ge2024</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/electionresults" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#electionresults</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/polling" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#polling</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/MRP" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#MRP</a>

UK Election ResultsMRP POLL ACCURACYI've been reviewing the various MRP polls to see which one was closest to the actual general election result and <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/YouGov" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#YouGov</a> is the very clear winner.Difference in number of seats won by a party compared to their final MRP projection:🔴 Labour: -19 🔵 Conservatives: +19 🟠 Liberal Democrats: 0 🟡 SNP: -11 ⚪ Reform UK: +2 🌻 Plaid Cymru: +1 🟢 Greens: +2<a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/ukpol" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ukpol</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/ukpolitics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ukpolitics</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/ge2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ge2024</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/electionresults" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#electionresults</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/polling" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#polling</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/Labour" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Labour</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/Conservatives" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Conservatives</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/LibDems" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#LibDems</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/GreenParty" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#GreenParty</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/ReformUK" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ReformUK</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/SNP" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#SNP</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/PlaidCymru" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#PlaidCymru</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/MRP" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#MRP</a>

UK Election ResultsGB POLLING: 2ND CHOICES FOR REFORM UK VOTERSHow people who voted Reform UK at the GE would have voted if Reform UK weren't an option, from poll by <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/MoreInCommon" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#MoreInCommon</a>: 🔵 Conservatives: 36% ⚫ N/A - Did not consider voting for another party: 25% 🔴 Labour: 16% 🟠 Liberal Democrats: 9% 🟢 Green Party: 7% 🟤 Another party: 5% ⚪ Don't know: 7%Conducted 5 July 2024.<a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/ukpol" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ukpol</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/ukpolitics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ukpolitics</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/ge2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ge2024</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/electionresults" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#electionresults</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/polling" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#polling</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/Labour" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Labour</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/Conservatives" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Conservatives</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/LibDems" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#LibDems</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/GreenParty" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#GreenParty</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/ReformUK" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ReformUK</a>

Radio JammorI do think the funniest realisation I have had about <a href="https://mastodon.scot/tags/GE2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#GE2024</a> <a href="https://mastodon.scot/tags/GeneralElection2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#GeneralElection2024</a> is that all those Tories in <a href="https://mastodon.scot/tags/Wales" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Wales</a> who complained bitterly about <a href="https://mastodon.scot/tags/UBI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#UBI</a> and Twenty mph speed limits, have been obliterated. 😆

Jacqui ☘️Good Night from a very different Northern Ireland tonight. For the first time in 54 years, <a href="https://mastodon.ie/tags/politics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#politics</a> is a Paisley free zone. That is bigger than any Portillo moment - that is an end of a political dynasty. <a href="https://mastodon.ie/tags/ge2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ge2024</a> was momentous for NI going forward.Times they are a changin..

UK Election ResultsThe last seats to declare:Reform UK gain their fifth seat from the Conservatives in South Basildon & East Thurrock, with Labour in second place.Inverness, Skye & West Rossshire now won't declare until Saturday (there was a discrepancy in the vote counting), but is apparently a definite Lib Dem gain from the SNP.<a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/ukpol" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ukpol</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/ukpolitics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ukpolitics</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/ge2024" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ge2024</a> <a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/tags/electionresults" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#electionresults</a>

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