Updated #CDC estimates show we've pretty much been in a JN.1.11 soup since Dec, until late March, when LP.8.1 took majority.
Data collection continues to be a low priority nationally, as only one region (NY/NJ) has enough data for CDC to plot.
No new variants broken out, yet CDC seems to have resources to tailor their color key: https://hcommons.social/@beadsland/114163320179234281
Raj's dashboard was updated on Sunday.
❖ #ThisIsOurPolio #Covid #Covid19 #SARS2 #variants #CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne #dataviz #datavis
![Chart: Estimated U.S. Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: Centers for Disease Control, CoV-Lineages, NYITCOM Research, Daniele Focosi, World Health Network, others
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, and any significant variants in GISAID not broken out by CDC.
Five bar-style tree-charts, for fortnights through March 16–29. Legend of last fortnight, organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.
Essentially all WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1. LP.8.1 accounts for well over half; JN.1 + FLiRT for over a quarter.
For fortnight of 3/2–3/15, packed bubble charts fill single-variant tiles, indicating diversification of those variants (per GISAID) that wouldn't otherwise be apparent from CDC's Nowcast.
Legend:
LP.8.1 [purple]:
55% - LP.8.1.1 / NY† & other LP.8.1
XEC [browns]:
21% - XEC.2† & other XEC
2% - XEC.4
JN.1.11 + FLuQE [greens]:
6% - MC.10.1 & MC.19
3% - MC.28.1
2% - XEQ
4% - MC.1 & other KP.3.1.1 / MC
⅘% - other KP.3
JN.1 + FLiRT [reds]:
4% - LF.7
2% - LB.1.3.1 / NL
JN.1.11 + FLiRT [blues]:
½% - XEK
0% - KP.2.3 & KP.1.1.3 / LP
Other [greys]:
⅖% - JN.1.16
⅙% - other WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1
0% - Other (not specified)
† Dagger variants are not broken out by CDC, yet represent a significant share of recent GISAID sequences.](https://spaces.hcommons.social/media_attachments/files/114/259/915/273/763/471/original/d43e9777e86ef6a8.jpg "Chart: Estimated U.S. Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: Centers for Disease Control, CoV-Lineages, NYITCOM Research, Daniele Focosi, World Health Network, others
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, and any significant variants in GISAID not broken out by CDC.
Five bar-style tree-charts, for fortnights through March 16–29. Legend of last fortnight, organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.
Essentially all WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1. LP.8.1 accounts for well over half; JN.1 + FLiRT for over a quarter.
For fortnight of 3/2–3/15, packed bubble charts fill single-variant tiles, indicating diversification of those variants (per GISAID) that wouldn't otherwise be apparent from CDC's Nowcast.
Legend:
LP.8.1 [purple]:
55% - LP.8.1.1 / NY† & other LP.8.1
XEC [browns]:
21% - XEC.2† & other XEC
2% - XEC.4
JN.1.11 + FLuQE [greens]:
6% - MC.10.1 & MC.19
3% - MC.28.1
2% - XEQ
4% - MC.1 & other KP.3.1.1 / MC
⅘% - other KP.3
JN.1 + FLiRT [reds]:
4% - LF.7
2% - LB.1.3.1 / NL
JN.1.11 + FLiRT [blues]:
½% - XEK
0% - KP.2.3 & KP.1.1.3 / LP
Other [greys]:
⅖% - JN.1.16
⅙% - other WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1
0% - Other (not specified)
† Dagger variants are not broken out by CDC, yet represent a significant share of recent GISAID sequences.")
![Chart: Estimated U.S. Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: Centers for Disease Control, CoV-Lineages, NYITCOM Research, Daniele Focosi, World Health Network, others
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, and any significant variants in GISAID not broken out by CDC.
Five bar-style tree-charts, for fortnights through March 2–15. Legend of last fortnight, organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.
Essentially all WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1. JN.1.11 accounts for over three fifths; JN.1.11 + FLiRT for near half.
For fortnight of 1/19–2/1, packed bubble charts fill single-variant tiles, indicating diversification of those variants (per GISAID) that wouldn't otherwise be apparent from CDC's Nowcast.
Legend:
LP.8.1 [purple]:
47% - LP.8.1.1 / NY† & other LP.8.1
JN.1 + FLiRT-KS [browns]:
26% - XEC.2†, XEC.8† & other XEC
2% - XEC.4
2% - XEQ
⅒% - other KS.1
JN.1.11 [greens]:
¾% - KP.3
15% - MC.10.1, MC.28.1, MC.19, MC.1 & other KP.3.1.1 / MC
JN.1 + FLiRT [reds]:
4% - LF.7
3% - LB.1.3.1 / NL
0% - LB.1
JN.1.11 + FLiRT [blues]:
½% - XEK
0% - KP.2.3 & KP.1.1.3 / LP
Other [greys]:
½% - JN.1.16
⅐% - other WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1
⅒% - Other (not specified)
† Dagger variants are not broken out by CDC, yet represent a significant share of recent GISAID sequences.](https://spaces.hcommons.social/media_attachments/files/114/163/035/799/833/179/original/9a1523ae932eddff.jpg "Chart: Estimated U.S. Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: Centers for Disease Control, CoV-Lineages, NYITCOM Research, Daniele Focosi, World Health Network, others
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, and any significant variants in GISAID not broken out by CDC.
Five bar-style tree-charts, for fortnights through March 2–15. Legend of last fortnight, organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.
Essentially all WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1. JN.1.11 accounts for over three fifths; JN.1.11 + FLiRT for near half.
For fortnight of 1/19–2/1, packed bubble charts fill single-variant tiles, indicating diversification of those variants (per GISAID) that wouldn't otherwise be apparent from CDC's Nowcast.
Legend:
LP.8.1 [purple]:
47% - LP.8.1.1 / NY† & other LP.8.1
JN.1 + FLiRT-KS [browns]:
26% - XEC.2†, XEC.8† & other XEC
2% - XEC.4
2% - XEQ
⅒% - other KS.1
JN.1.11 [greens]:
¾% - KP.3
15% - MC.10.1, MC.28.1, MC.19, MC.1 & other KP.3.1.1 / MC
JN.1 + FLiRT [reds]:
4% - LF.7
3% - LB.1.3.1 / NL
0% - LB.1
JN.1.11 + FLiRT [blues]:
½% - XEK
0% - KP.2.3 & KP.1.1.3 / LP
Other [greys]:
½% - JN.1.16
⅐% - other WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1
⅒% - Other (not specified)
† Dagger variants are not broken out by CDC, yet represent a significant share of recent GISAID sequences.")
x7 
![Chart: SARSCoV2 Variant Dashboard - USA | 30-DAY TRENDS
Source: NYITCOM Research Report (Raj Rajnarayanan)
Caption (in part): Circulating Variants in…following US States: All - Specimen Collected in…last 30 days | Updated on 1/20/2025 6:14:21 AM [GMT?] | Source (sequences): GISAID
Packed-bubble chart showing tallies of each identified variant for each state, for collection dates 12/22/2024 to 1/4/2025. Top subvariants: XEC (30.71%), KP.3.1.1 (16.45%), LP.8.1 (8.11%), XEC.2 (4.60%), MC.10.1 (4.08%).
Raj has standardized bubbles to violet (BA.2.86.*), aqua green (XBB.1.16.*), forest green (XEC, a recombinant of two B.2.86 strains), and yellow (LP.8.*). although some newer Pango aliases may still be getting unique colors assigned by Tableau.
Bubbles largest and most prominent for: XEC (forest) in Minnesota (83), Colorado (66), Ohio (65), New York (53), Utah (40), New Jersey (35), Nebraska (30), Pennsylvania, California, Arizona, Iowa, Illinois; KP.3.1.1 (violet) for Minnesota (52), Ohio (35), Colorado (29), California, New York, Iowa, Nebraska; LP.8.1 (yellow) for Minnesota, New York, California; XEC.2 (forest) for New York.
Dozens of bubbles of varying sizes representing a many dozens of variants across various states.
ALT-text by beadsland at ko-fi.](https://spaces.hcommons.social/media_attachments/files/113/871/405/556/703/116/original/9f948a436f03b135.png "Chart: SARSCoV2 Variant Dashboard - USA | 30-DAY TRENDS
Source: NYITCOM Research Report (Raj Rajnarayanan)
Caption (in part): Circulating Variants in…following US States: All - Specimen Collected in…last 30 days | Updated on 1/20/2025 6:14:21 AM [GMT?] | Source (sequences): GISAID
Packed-bubble chart showing tallies of each identified variant for each state, for collection dates 12/22/2024 to 1/4/2025. Top subvariants: XEC (30.71%), KP.3.1.1 (16.45%), LP.8.1 (8.11%), XEC.2 (4.60%), MC.10.1 (4.08%).
Raj has standardized bubbles to violet (BA.2.86.*), aqua green (XBB.1.16.*), forest green (XEC, a recombinant of two B.2.86 strains), and yellow (LP.8.*). although some newer Pango aliases may still be getting unique colors assigned by Tableau.
Bubbles largest and most prominent for: XEC (forest) in Minnesota (83), Colorado (66), Ohio (65), New York (53), Utah (40), New Jersey (35), Nebraska (30), Pennsylvania, California, Arizona, Iowa, Illinois; KP.3.1.1 (violet) for Minnesota (52), Ohio (35), Colorado (29), California, New York, Iowa, Nebraska; LP.8.1 (yellow) for Minnesota, New York, California; XEC.2 (forest) for New York.
Dozens of bubbles of varying sizes representing a many dozens of variants across various states.
ALT-text by beadsland at ko-fi.")
![Chart: Variants by Pango-Designated Lineage: U.S. Dec 22 to Jan 4
Source: GISAID (via Raj Rajnarayanan's COVID-19 Variant Dashboard, updated January 20)
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Pie chart of major lineages, with lesser lineages bundled together by common alphanumeric initial character. Call-outs for each pie slice list number of variants counted and provide a percentage of pie.
Percentage is in a dull grey font, to which a dark backing has been applied to aid legibility.
Color key of pie slices aligns to that of latest "Estimated Variant Proportions by Common Name" (earlier in this thread), namely:
• Purples: JN.1.11
• Reds/Pinks: JN.1.11 + FLiRT
• Browns: JN.1.11 + FLiRT-LP
• Blues: XEC
• Greens: JN.1 + FLiRT
• Greys: Other
Reading clockwise from top:
- Mult. unlabeled slivers of grey & pink.
16.4% - KP.3.1.1 / MC [purple]
3.0% - other KP.3 (9 variants) [pink]
- Unlabeled sliver of grey.
2.2% - LB.1.3.1 (1 var.) [green]
- Unlabeled sliver of green.
4.0% - LF.7 (7 variants) [green]
8.1% - LP.8.1 (1 var.) [brown]
- Unlabeled slivers of brown, green, grey.
3.5% - MC.1 (2 variants) [purple]
4.1% - MC.10.1 (1 var.) [purple]
- Unlabeled sliver of purple.
1.4% - MC.19 (1 var.) [purple]
7.5% - other MC (19 variants) [purple]
- Unlabeled slice of grey.
2.4% - NL (6 variants) [green]
- Unlabeled slice of grey.
4.6% - XEC.2 (1 var.) [blue]
- Unlabeled slice of blue.
32.2% - other XEC (5 variants) [blue]
- Unlabeled slice of pink.
2.2% - XEL (1 var.) [grey]
- Unlabeled slice of grey](https://spaces.hcommons.social/media_attachments/files/113/871/406/386/336/746/original/68c398d78fe1b42a.png "Chart: Variants by Pango-Designated Lineage: U.S. Dec 22 to Jan 4
Source: GISAID (via Raj Rajnarayanan's COVID-19 Variant Dashboard, updated January 20)
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Pie chart of major lineages, with lesser lineages bundled together by common alphanumeric initial character. Call-outs for each pie slice list number of variants counted and provide a percentage of pie.
Percentage is in a dull grey font, to which a dark backing has been applied to aid legibility.
Color key of pie slices aligns to that of latest \"Estimated Variant Proportions by Common Name\" (earlier in this thread), namely:
• Purples: JN.1.11
• Reds/Pinks: JN.1.11 + FLiRT
• Browns: JN.1.11 + FLiRT-LP
• Blues: XEC
• Greens: JN.1 + FLiRT
• Greys: Other
Reading clockwise from top:
- Mult. unlabeled slivers of grey & pink.
16.4% - KP.3.1.1 / MC [purple]
3.0% - other KP.3 (9 variants) [pink]
- Unlabeled sliver of grey.
2.2% - LB.1.3.1 (1 var.) [green]
- Unlabeled sliver of green.
4.0% - LF.7 (7 variants) [green]
8.1% - LP.8.1 (1 var.) [brown]
- Unlabeled slivers of brown, green, grey.
3.5% - MC.1 (2 variants) [purple]
4.1% - MC.10.1 (1 var.) [purple]
- Unlabeled sliver of purple.
1.4% - MC.19 (1 var.) [purple]
7.5% - other MC (19 variants) [purple]
- Unlabeled slice of grey.
2.4% - NL (6 variants) [green]
- Unlabeled slice of grey.
4.6% - XEC.2 (1 var.) [blue]
- Unlabeled slice of blue.
32.2% - other XEC (5 variants) [blue]
- Unlabeled slice of pink.
2.2% - XEL (1 var.) [grey]
- Unlabeled slice of grey")
![Chart: Estimated U.S. Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: Centers for Disease Control, CoV-Lineages, NYITCOM Research, Daniele Focosi, World Health Network, others
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, and any significant variants in GISAID not broken out by CDC.
Five bar-style tree-charts, for fortnights through January 5–18. Legend of last fortnight, organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.
Essentially all WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1. JN.1 + FLiRT accounts for well over half; XEC for near half.
For fortnight of 12/22–1/4, packed bubble charts fill single-variant tiles, indicating diversification of those variants (per GISAID) that wouldn't otherwise be apparent from CDC's Nowcast.
Legend:
XEC [blues]:
47% - XEC.2† & other XEC
3% - XEC.4
JN.1.11 [purples]:
1% - KP.3
23% - MC.10.1, MC.1, MC.19 & other KP.3.1.1 / MC
JN.1.11 + FLiRT-LP [browns]:
15% - LP.8.1
⅛% - LP.1 & other KP.1.1.3 / LP
JN.1 + FLiRT [greens]:
4% - LF.7
2% - LB.1.3.1 / NL
1% - JN.1.18.6 / LY
⅒% - LB.1
JN.1.11 + FLiRT [reds]:
4% - XEK
⅒% - FDA-Vaccine-Target KP.2
⅑% - other KP.2.3
Other [greys]:
⅒% - other WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1
⅒% - Other (not specified)
† Dagger variant is not broken out by CDC, yet represent a significant share of recent GISAID sequences.](https://spaces.hcommons.social/media_attachments/files/113/871/149/086/456/148/original/ab960ae7a01a0789.jpg "Chart: Estimated U.S. Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: Centers for Disease Control, CoV-Lineages, NYITCOM Research, Daniele Focosi, World Health Network, others
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, and any significant variants in GISAID not broken out by CDC.
Five bar-style tree-charts, for fortnights through January 5–18. Legend of last fortnight, organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.
Essentially all WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1. JN.1 + FLiRT accounts for well over half; XEC for near half.
For fortnight of 12/22–1/4, packed bubble charts fill single-variant tiles, indicating diversification of those variants (per GISAID) that wouldn't otherwise be apparent from CDC's Nowcast.
Legend:
XEC [blues]:
47% - XEC.2† & other XEC
3% - XEC.4
JN.1.11 [purples]:
1% - KP.3
23% - MC.10.1, MC.1, MC.19 & other KP.3.1.1 / MC
JN.1.11 + FLiRT-LP [browns]:
15% - LP.8.1
⅛% - LP.1 & other KP.1.1.3 / LP
JN.1 + FLiRT [greens]:
4% - LF.7
2% - LB.1.3.1 / NL
1% - JN.1.18.6 / LY
⅒% - LB.1
JN.1.11 + FLiRT [reds]:
4% - XEK
⅒% - FDA-Vaccine-Target KP.2
⅑% - other KP.2.3
Other [greys]:
⅒% - other WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1
⅒% - Other (not specified)
† Dagger variant is not broken out by CDC, yet represent a significant share of recent GISAID sequences.")
![Chart: SARSCoV2 Variant Dashboard - USA | 30-DAY TRENDS
Source: NYITCOM Research Report (Raj Rajnarayanan)
Caption (in part): Circulating Variants in…following US States: All - Specimen Collected in…last 30 days | Updated on 11/4/2024 2:53:17 AM [GMT?] | Source (sequences): GISAID
Packed-bubble chart showing tallies of each identified variant for each state, for collection dates 10/13/2024 to 10/25/2024. Top subvariants: KP.3.1.1 (38.37%), XEC (11.84%), KP.2.3 (4.29%), LB.1.3.1 (4.08%).
Raj has standardized bubbles to violet (BA.2.86.*), aqua green (XBB.1.16.*), forest green (XEC, a recombinant of two Pirola strains), and grey (other), although some newer Pango aliases may still be getting unique colors assigned by Tableau.
Bubbles largest and most prominent for KP.3.1.1 for New York (52), New Jersey (25), California (22), Virginia (15), Iowa (14), Pennsylvania (11), Utah (11), Washington. LB.1.3.1 for New York (17). XEC for California (16), New York (13), New Jersey, Iowa, Utah. KP.3.1 of Nevada (15).
Dozens of bubbles of varying sizes representing over sixty distinct variants across various states.
ALT-text by beadsland at ko-fi.](https://spaces.hcommons.social/media_attachments/files/113/451/220/850/768/722/original/d64057528bb86c2a.png "Chart: SARSCoV2 Variant Dashboard - USA | 30-DAY TRENDS
Source: NYITCOM Research Report (Raj Rajnarayanan)
Caption (in part): Circulating Variants in…following US States: All - Specimen Collected in…last 30 days | Updated on 11/4/2024 2:53:17 AM [GMT?] | Source (sequences): GISAID
Packed-bubble chart showing tallies of each identified variant for each state, for collection dates 10/13/2024 to 10/25/2024. Top subvariants: KP.3.1.1 (38.37%), XEC (11.84%), KP.2.3 (4.29%), LB.1.3.1 (4.08%).
Raj has standardized bubbles to violet (BA.2.86.*), aqua green (XBB.1.16.*), forest green (XEC, a recombinant of two Pirola strains), and grey (other), although some newer Pango aliases may still be getting unique colors assigned by Tableau.
Bubbles largest and most prominent for KP.3.1.1 for New York (52), New Jersey (25), California (22), Virginia (15), Iowa (14), Pennsylvania (11), Utah (11), Washington. LB.1.3.1 for New York (17). XEC for California (16), New York (13), New Jersey, Iowa, Utah. KP.3.1 of Nevada (15).
Dozens of bubbles of varying sizes representing over sixty distinct variants across various states.
ALT-text by beadsland at ko-fi.")
![Chart: Variants by Pango-Designated Lineage: U.S. October 13 to 25
Source: GISAID (via Raj Rajnarayanan's COVID-19 Variant Dashboard, updated November 4)
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Pie chart of major lineages, with lesser lineages bundled together by common alphanumeric initial character. Call-outs for each pie slice list number of variants counted and provide a percentage of pie.
Percentage is in a dull grey font, to which a dark backing has been applied to aid legibility.
Color key of pie slices aligns to that of latest "Estimated Variant Proportions by Common Name" (earlier in this thread), namely:
• Blues: JN.1.11 + FLuQE31-MC
• Greens: JN.1.11 + FLuQE
• Purples: JN.1 + FLiRT-KS
• Reds/Orange: JN.1 + FLiRT
• Browns/Tans: JN.1.11 + FLiRT
• Greys: Other
Reading clockwise from top:
- Unlabeled sliver of orange.
4.5% - JN.1 (6 variants) [grey]
1.2% - KP.1.1.3 / LP [tan]
4.3% - KP.2.3 (1 variant) [brown]
- Unlabeled sliver of brown.
- Unlabeled slice of tan.
38.4% - KP.3.1.1 / MC [blue]
9.4% - KP.3.3 (9 variants) [green]
- Unlabeled sliver of grey.
4.1% - LB.1.3.1 (1 variant) [pink-orange]
3.3% - other LB.1 (9 variants) [purple]
3.1% - LF.7 (1 variant) [orange]
- Unlabeled slivers of orange, tan and grey.
1.4% - MC.1 (1 variant) [blue]
3.7% - MC.10 (1 variant) [blue]
6.5% - other MC (11 variants) [blue]
2.6% - MV, MA, MB & ML [grey]
12.9% - XEC (2 variants) [purple]
- Unlabeled slivers of orange & brown.](https://spaces.hcommons.social/media_attachments/files/113/451/221/981/328/509/original/83a1071032b1d527.png "Chart: Variants by Pango-Designated Lineage: U.S. October 13 to 25
Source: GISAID (via Raj Rajnarayanan's COVID-19 Variant Dashboard, updated November 4)
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Pie chart of major lineages, with lesser lineages bundled together by common alphanumeric initial character. Call-outs for each pie slice list number of variants counted and provide a percentage of pie.
Percentage is in a dull grey font, to which a dark backing has been applied to aid legibility.
Color key of pie slices aligns to that of latest \"Estimated Variant Proportions by Common Name\" (earlier in this thread), namely:
• Blues: JN.1.11 + FLuQE31-MC
• Greens: JN.1.11 + FLuQE
• Purples: JN.1 + FLiRT-KS
• Reds/Orange: JN.1 + FLiRT
• Browns/Tans: JN.1.11 + FLiRT
• Greys: Other
Reading clockwise from top:
- Unlabeled sliver of orange.
4.5% - JN.1 (6 variants) [grey]
1.2% - KP.1.1.3 / LP [tan]
4.3% - KP.2.3 (1 variant) [brown]
- Unlabeled sliver of brown.
- Unlabeled slice of tan.
38.4% - KP.3.1.1 / MC [blue]
9.4% - KP.3.3 (9 variants) [green]
- Unlabeled sliver of grey.
4.1% - LB.1.3.1 (1 variant) [pink-orange]
3.3% - other LB.1 (9 variants) [purple]
3.1% - LF.7 (1 variant) [orange]
- Unlabeled slivers of orange, tan and grey.
1.4% - MC.1 (1 variant) [blue]
3.7% - MC.10 (1 variant) [blue]
6.5% - other MC (11 variants) [blue]
2.6% - MV, MA, MB & ML [grey]
12.9% - XEC (2 variants) [purple]
- Unlabeled slivers of orange & brown.")
![Chart: Estimated U.S. Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: Centers for Disease Control, CoV-Lineages, NYITCOM, D. Focosi, WHN, others
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
A reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, emphasizing significant variants, incl. those in GISAID yet not broken out by CDC.
Five rectangular tree-charts, side by side, for fortnights through October 27–November 9. Legend organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.
Essentially all JN.1. KP.3 fam accounts for near two thirds of total, KP.3.1.1 alone over half.
For week of 10/13–11/9, packed bubble charts fills larger single-variant tiles, indicating diversification of those variants—per GISAID—that wouldn't otherwise be apparent given CDC's choices of what to break out or not.
Legend:
JN.1.11 + FLuQE31-MC [blue]:
52% - MC.10† & other KP.3.1.1 / MC
6% - MC.1
JN.1.11 + FLiRT-KS [purples]:
26% - XEC
⅒% - KS.1
JN.1 + FLiRT [reds]:
3% - LB.1.7†, LF.3.1 & other JN.1.16.1 / LF
2% - LB.1
2% - LB.1.3.1 / NL
JN.1.11 + FLiRT [browns]:
3% - KP.2.3 & KP.2.15
1% - FDA-Vaccine-Target KP.2, KP.1.1 & KP.4.1
⅖% - LP.1
⅝% - other KP.1.1.3 / LP
JN.1.11 + FLuQE [green]:
3% - KP.3
Other [greys]:
½% - JN.1.18, JN.1.11.1 / KP & four tracked variants at <⅒%
0% - Pirola + FViRT
0% - Hippogryph XBB
1% - other WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1
½% - Other (not specified)](https://spaces.hcommons.social/media_attachments/files/113/450/818/397/283/795/original/b899ac6ba4fac594.jpg "Chart: Estimated U.S. Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: Centers for Disease Control, CoV-Lineages, NYITCOM, D. Focosi, WHN, others
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
A reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, emphasizing significant variants, incl. those in GISAID yet not broken out by CDC.
Five rectangular tree-charts, side by side, for fortnights through October 27–November 9. Legend organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.
Essentially all JN.1. KP.3 fam accounts for near two thirds of total, KP.3.1.1 alone over half.
For week of 10/13–11/9, packed bubble charts fills larger single-variant tiles, indicating diversification of those variants—per GISAID—that wouldn't otherwise be apparent given CDC's choices of what to break out or not.
Legend:
JN.1.11 + FLuQE31-MC [blue]:
52% - MC.10† & other KP.3.1.1 / MC
6% - MC.1
JN.1.11 + FLiRT-KS [purples]:
26% - XEC
⅒% - KS.1
JN.1 + FLiRT [reds]:
3% - LB.1.7†, LF.3.1 & other JN.1.16.1 / LF
2% - LB.1
2% - LB.1.3.1 / NL
JN.1.11 + FLiRT [browns]:
3% - KP.2.3 & KP.2.15
1% - FDA-Vaccine-Target KP.2, KP.1.1 & KP.4.1
⅖% - LP.1
⅝% - other KP.1.1.3 / LP
JN.1.11 + FLuQE [green]:
3% - KP.3
Other [greys]:
½% - JN.1.18, JN.1.11.1 / KP & four tracked variants at <⅒%
0% - Pirola + FViRT
0% - Hippogryph XBB
1% - other WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1
½% - Other (not specified)")
![Chart: SARSCoV2 Variant Dashboard - USA | 30-DAY TRENDS
Source: NYITCOM Research Report (Raj Rajnarayanan)
Caption (in part): Circulating Variants in…following US States: All - Specimen Collected in…last 30 days | Updated on 10/27/2024 7:14:19 PM [GMT?] | Source (sequences): GISAID
Packed-bubble chart showing tallies of each identified variant for each state, for collection dates 9/29/2024 to 10/12/2024. Top subvariants: KP.3.1.1 (41.89%), XEC (8.26%), KP.2.3 (3.5%).
Raj has standardized bubbles to violet (BA.2.86.*), aqua green (XBB.1.16.*), forest green (XEC, a recombinant of two Pirola strains), orange (XBB.1.5.*), and grey (other), although some newer Pango aliases may still be getting unique colors assigned by Tableau.
Bubbles largest and most prominent for KP.3.1.1 for New York (122), New Jersey (82), California (53), Utah (44), Pennsylvania (31), Virginia (26), Washington (25), Maryland (19), Texas (19), Illinois (19), Iowa, Delaware, Minnesota, a North State, and Nebraska; XEC for New York (25), California (20), New Jersey; LB.1.3.1 (22) for New York.
Near two dozen smaller forest green bubbles for XEC, together with over a dozen aqua bubbles, represent recombinants.
Many dozens of purple bubbles of varying sizes representing near a hundred distinct variants across various states.
ALT-text by beadsland at ko-fi.](https://spaces.hcommons.social/media_attachments/files/113/388/736/527/463/588/original/2e8c85161d0f3b23.png "Chart: SARSCoV2 Variant Dashboard - USA | 30-DAY TRENDS
Source: NYITCOM Research Report (Raj Rajnarayanan)
Caption (in part): Circulating Variants in…following US States: All - Specimen Collected in…last 30 days | Updated on 10/27/2024 7:14:19 PM [GMT?] | Source (sequences): GISAID
Packed-bubble chart showing tallies of each identified variant for each state, for collection dates 9/29/2024 to 10/12/2024. Top subvariants: KP.3.1.1 (41.89%), XEC (8.26%), KP.2.3 (3.5%).
Raj has standardized bubbles to violet (BA.2.86.*), aqua green (XBB.1.16.*), forest green (XEC, a recombinant of two Pirola strains), orange (XBB.1.5.*), and grey (other), although some newer Pango aliases may still be getting unique colors assigned by Tableau.
Bubbles largest and most prominent for KP.3.1.1 for New York (122), New Jersey (82), California (53), Utah (44), Pennsylvania (31), Virginia (26), Washington (25), Maryland (19), Texas (19), Illinois (19), Iowa, Delaware, Minnesota, a North State, and Nebraska; XEC for New York (25), California (20), New Jersey; LB.1.3.1 (22) for New York.
Near two dozen smaller forest green bubbles for XEC, together with over a dozen aqua bubbles, represent recombinants.
Many dozens of purple bubbles of varying sizes representing near a hundred distinct variants across various states.
ALT-text by beadsland at ko-fi.")
![Chart: Variants by Pango-Designated Lineage: U.S. Sept 29 to October 12
Source: GISAID (via Raj Rajnarayanan's COVID-19 Variant Dashboard, updated October 27)
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Pie chart of major lineages, with lesser lineages bundled together by common alphanumeric initial character. Call-outs for each pie slice list number of variants counted and provide a percentage of pie.
Percentage is in a dull grey font, to which a dark backing has been applied to aid legibility.
Color key of pie slices aligns to that of latest "Estimated Variant Proportions by Common Name" (earlier in this thread), namely:
• Blues: JN.11 + FLuQE31-MC
• Greens: JN.1.11 + FLuQE
• Reds: JN.1 + FLiRT-KS
• Purples: JN.1 + FLiRT
• Browns: JN.1.11 + FLiRT
• Greys: Other
Reading clockwise from top:
- Unlabeled slice of purple.
3.1% - other JN.1 (6 variants) [grey]
- Unlabeled slices of green and tan.
2.7% - KP.2.3 (6 variants) [brown]
- Unlabeled sliver of brown.
2.7% - other KP.2 (6 variants) [tan]
42.0% - KP.3.1.1 / MC [blue]
6.4% - other KP.3 (12 var'nts) [green]
- Unlabeled sliver of grey.
- Unlabeled slice of pink.
- Another unlabeled sliver of grey.
2.8% - LB.1.3.1 (1 variant) [purple]
4.1% - other LB.1 (9 variants) [purple]
1.2% - other LF (2 variants) [purple]
1.2% - MC.1 (1 variant) [blue]
2.5% - MC.16 (1 variant) [blue]
10.2% - other MC (14 variants) [blue]
2.1% - MV, MB, MA, MU, ... [grey]
9.3% - XEC (3 variants) [red]
- Unlabeled slices of purple and brown.
- Unlabeled sliver of grey.](https://spaces.hcommons.social/media_attachments/files/113/388/736/955/708/378/original/dbbb7759e72c485c.png "Chart: Variants by Pango-Designated Lineage: U.S. Sept 29 to October 12
Source: GISAID (via Raj Rajnarayanan's COVID-19 Variant Dashboard, updated October 27)
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Pie chart of major lineages, with lesser lineages bundled together by common alphanumeric initial character. Call-outs for each pie slice list number of variants counted and provide a percentage of pie.
Percentage is in a dull grey font, to which a dark backing has been applied to aid legibility.
Color key of pie slices aligns to that of latest \"Estimated Variant Proportions by Common Name\" (earlier in this thread), namely:
• Blues: JN.11 + FLuQE31-MC
• Greens: JN.1.11 + FLuQE
• Reds: JN.1 + FLiRT-KS
• Purples: JN.1 + FLiRT
• Browns: JN.1.11 + FLiRT
• Greys: Other
Reading clockwise from top:
- Unlabeled slice of purple.
3.1% - other JN.1 (6 variants) [grey]
- Unlabeled slices of green and tan.
2.7% - KP.2.3 (6 variants) [brown]
- Unlabeled sliver of brown.
2.7% - other KP.2 (6 variants) [tan]
42.0% - KP.3.1.1 / MC [blue]
6.4% - other KP.3 (12 var'nts) [green]
- Unlabeled sliver of grey.
- Unlabeled slice of pink.
- Another unlabeled sliver of grey.
2.8% - LB.1.3.1 (1 variant) [purple]
4.1% - other LB.1 (9 variants) [purple]
1.2% - other LF (2 variants) [purple]
1.2% - MC.1 (1 variant) [blue]
2.5% - MC.16 (1 variant) [blue]
10.2% - other MC (14 variants) [blue]
2.1% - MV, MB, MA, MU, ... [grey]
9.3% - XEC (3 variants) [red]
- Unlabeled slices of purple and brown.
- Unlabeled sliver of grey.")
![Chart: Estimated U.S. Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: Centers for Disease Control, CoV-Lineages, NYITCOM, D. Focosi, WHN, others
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
A reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, emphasizing significant variants, incl. those in GISAID yet not broken out by CDC.
Five rectangular tree-charts, side by side, for fortnights through Oct 13–Oct 26. Legend organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.
Essentially all JN.1. KP.3 fam accounts for near two thirds of total, KP.3.1.1 alone over half.
For week of 9/29–10/12, packed bubble charts fills larger single-variant tiles, indicating diversification of those variants—per GISAID—that wouldn't otherwise be apparent given CDC's choices of what to break out or not.
Legend:
JN.1.11 + FLuQE31-MC [blues]:
5% - MC.1
57% - other KP.3.1.1 / MC
JN.1 + FLiRT-KS [reds]:
17% - XEC
⅕% - other KS.1
JN.1.11 + FLiRT [browns]:
5% - KP.2.3 & KP.2.15
2% - FDA-Vaccine-Target KP.2, KP.1.1 & KP.4.1
2% - LP.1 & other KP.1.1.3 / LP
JN.1 + FLiRT [purples]:
5% - LB.1, JN.1.16.1 / LF & LF.3.1
2% - LB.1.3.1 / NL
JN.1.11 + FLuQE [green]:
3% - KP.3
Other [greys]:
¾% - JN.1.18
0% - Hyperion XBB.1.9.1 / FL & Kraken XBB.1.5
0% - Pirola + FViRT31
⅖% - JN.1.11.1 / KP, four tracked variants at <⅒% & other WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1
0% - other Omicron-2 BA.2
½% - Other (not specified)](https://spaces.hcommons.social/media_attachments/files/113/388/316/400/849/171/original/9c267a7f5b4ddde9.jpg "Chart: Estimated U.S. Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: Centers for Disease Control, CoV-Lineages, NYITCOM, D. Focosi, WHN, others
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
A reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, emphasizing significant variants, incl. those in GISAID yet not broken out by CDC.
Five rectangular tree-charts, side by side, for fortnights through Oct 13–Oct 26. Legend organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.
Essentially all JN.1. KP.3 fam accounts for near two thirds of total, KP.3.1.1 alone over half.
For week of 9/29–10/12, packed bubble charts fills larger single-variant tiles, indicating diversification of those variants—per GISAID—that wouldn't otherwise be apparent given CDC's choices of what to break out or not.
Legend:
JN.1.11 + FLuQE31-MC [blues]:
5% - MC.1
57% - other KP.3.1.1 / MC
JN.1 + FLiRT-KS [reds]:
17% - XEC
⅕% - other KS.1
JN.1.11 + FLiRT [browns]:
5% - KP.2.3 & KP.2.15
2% - FDA-Vaccine-Target KP.2, KP.1.1 & KP.4.1
2% - LP.1 & other KP.1.1.3 / LP
JN.1 + FLiRT [purples]:
5% - LB.1, JN.1.16.1 / LF & LF.3.1
2% - LB.1.3.1 / NL
JN.1.11 + FLuQE [green]:
3% - KP.3
Other [greys]:
¾% - JN.1.18
0% - Hyperion XBB.1.9.1 / FL & Kraken XBB.1.5
0% - Pirola + FViRT31
⅖% - JN.1.11.1 / KP, four tracked variants at <⅒% & other WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1
0% - other Omicron-2 BA.2
½% - Other (not specified)")
![Chart: Rolling Year Pandemic Mortality: United States
Data: CDC, NCHS, Census
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Line chart plotting various mortality measures on logarithmic scale, with reference percentages on right-axis.
Legend:
• Elevated Deaths vs. 2017–2019 (adj. for pop.)
• Est. Excess Deaths — All Causes / Rolling Year
• Acute Covid Deaths — Rolling Year
• Share of Excess Deaths Not Attributed to Covid
• Percent Elevation Observed Deaths over 2017-2019 Average
First two figures held ~325K & ~190K, respectively, Feb–Jun 2023—despite annual acute covid deaths down from ~190K to ~120K same period.
First two at ~300K & ~150K, with reporting end Sept 2023. Third figure went from ~100K in Aug '23 to ~60K entering July, when climbed for two months.
Caption (in relevant part):
As of April 1 2023, over one in four excess deaths in the U.S. were “not covid”. Ratio had been above three in ten, May–Sept 2023, at which point CDC stopped reporting excess deaths.
That includes: covid deaths not reported as such or for which no covid test was administered; deaths from post-acute sequelae of prior covid infection (whether consequences of symptomatic Long Covid, post-acute organ damage not specifically identified as [LC] or otherwise asymptomatic, heightened risk for sudden adverse health outcomes); and deaths from causes that would otherwise had not been fatal but for deferred medical care, continued strain on understaffed hospitals, and inadequate availability of vital medical supplies.](https://spaces.hcommons.social/media_attachments/files/113/375/641/734/881/481/original/624e83d3d6bb6c38.png "Chart: Rolling Year Pandemic Mortality: United States
Data: CDC, NCHS, Census
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Line chart plotting various mortality measures on logarithmic scale, with reference percentages on right-axis.
Legend:
• Elevated Deaths vs. 2017–2019 (adj. for pop.)
• Est. Excess Deaths — All Causes / Rolling Year
• Acute Covid Deaths — Rolling Year
• Share of Excess Deaths Not Attributed to Covid
• Percent Elevation Observed Deaths over 2017-2019 Average
First two figures held ~325K & ~190K, respectively, Feb–Jun 2023—despite annual acute covid deaths down from ~190K to ~120K same period.
First two at ~300K & ~150K, with reporting end Sept 2023. Third figure went from ~100K in Aug '23 to ~60K entering July, when climbed for two months.
Caption (in relevant part):
As of April 1 2023, over one in four excess deaths in the U.S. were “not covid”. Ratio had been above three in ten, May–Sept 2023, at which point CDC stopped reporting excess deaths.
That includes: covid deaths not reported as such or for which no covid test was administered; deaths from post-acute sequelae of prior covid infection (whether consequences of symptomatic Long Covid, post-acute organ damage not specifically identified as [LC] or otherwise asymptomatic, heightened risk for sudden adverse health outcomes); and deaths from causes that would otherwise had not been fatal but for deferred medical care, continued strain on understaffed hospitals, and inadequate availability of vital medical supplies.")
![Chart: Rolling Year Pandemic Mortality: United States
Data: CDC, NCHS, Census
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Line chart plotting various mortality measures on logarithmic scale, with reference percentages on right-axis.
Legend:
• Elevated Deaths vs. 2017–2019 (adj. for pop.)
• Est. Excess Deaths — All Causes / Rolling Year
• Acute Covid Deaths — Rolling Year
• Share of Excess Deaths Not Attributed to Covid
• Percent Elevation Observed Deaths over 2017-2019 Average
First two figures held ~325K & ~190K, respectively, Feb–Jun 2023—despite annual acute covid deaths down from ~190K to ~120K same period.
First two at ~300K & ~150K, with reporting end Sept 2023. Third figure went from ~100K in Aug '23 to ~60K entering July, when climbed for two months.
Caption (in relevant part):
As of April 1 2023, over one in four excess deaths in the U.S. were “not covid”. Ratio had been above three in ten, May–Sept 2023, at which point CDC stopped reporting excess deaths.
That includes: covid deaths not reported as such or for which no covid test was administered; deaths from post-acute sequelae of prior covid infection (whether consequences of symptomatic Long Covid, post-acute organ damage not specifically identified as [LC] or otherwise asymptomatic, heightened risk for sudden adverse health outcomes); and deaths from causes that would otherwise had not been fatal but for deferred medical care, continued strain on understaffed hospitals, and inadequate availability of vital medical supplies.](https://spaces.hcommons.social/media_attachments/files/113/348/797/905/529/855/original/806c38889103489f.png "Chart: Rolling Year Pandemic Mortality: United States
Data: CDC, NCHS, Census
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Line chart plotting various mortality measures on logarithmic scale, with reference percentages on right-axis.
Legend:
• Elevated Deaths vs. 2017–2019 (adj. for pop.)
• Est. Excess Deaths — All Causes / Rolling Year
• Acute Covid Deaths — Rolling Year
• Share of Excess Deaths Not Attributed to Covid
• Percent Elevation Observed Deaths over 2017-2019 Average
First two figures held ~325K & ~190K, respectively, Feb–Jun 2023—despite annual acute covid deaths down from ~190K to ~120K same period.
First two at ~300K & ~150K, with reporting end Sept 2023. Third figure went from ~100K in Aug '23 to ~60K entering July, when climbed for two months.
Caption (in relevant part):
As of April 1 2023, over one in four excess deaths in the U.S. were “not covid”. Ratio had been above three in ten, May–Sept 2023, at which point CDC stopped reporting excess deaths.
That includes: covid deaths not reported as such or for which no covid test was administered; deaths from post-acute sequelae of prior covid infection (whether consequences of symptomatic Long Covid, post-acute organ damage not specifically identified as [LC] or otherwise asymptomatic, heightened risk for sudden adverse health outcomes); and deaths from causes that would otherwise had not been fatal but for deferred medical care, continued strain on understaffed hospitals, and inadequate availability of vital medical supplies.")