Another blow for the polling industry in the U.S. following the shuttering of FiveThirtyEight: Monmouth University Polling Institute will close on July 1. "The changing political and media landscapes have made it both more difficult and more expensive for polling organizations to operate," says the university's president Patrick F. Leahy. Here's more from @politico.
Polls do more than predict winners—they reveal shifts in public sentiment. But in today's polarized climate, even small perceived failures fuel distrust in pollsters.
#polling #politics
https://buff.ly/zHhkXF2
Okay, so the FiveThirtyEight site for polling results is now redirecting to the ABC News politics page. This change happened recently because I checked it yesterday (though it was stuck on March 4 results).
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Wikipedia has already been updated with the information:
"On March 5, 2025, the website was shut down by ABC News and the team behind it were fired. This was the first day that the site's data showed the popularity of US President Donald Trump in his second term turn negative."
America is divided in 4 parts:
340.1m total july24
95.4m Not eligible to #vote under 18 + others 28.1%
89.5m Eligible did not #vote 26.2%
77.3m TrumpVance 22.7%
75.0m #HarrisWalz 22.1%
2.9m other none of above 0.9%
Sources us census, UFelectionlab, FEC
All #projections from #polling should reflect the total pop as denominator or disclose who is disregarded
Vote Midterms @skykiss@sfba.socialWho do Americans support?
Which #Overknees would you choose?
Interesting small development in my #polling precinct. We had lots of officers and a calm day with steady #voters. There’s another precinct elsewhere in the county that has so many same-day registrations that they took one of our reserve officers and reassigned him there to keep up with demand. Yay for SDRs!
#election2024 #electionday #electionofficer
#Virginia is one of many states that prohibits #firearms and #guns in a #polling place. I’m no lawyer so I don’t really know how long it’s been in its current form. It seems like this law has been on the books a long time (since 1950 with various amendment over the years).
This is the first year we have made much of a fuss about it. We have 2 prominent signs and we got a tiny bit of training on how to handle the situation. (Pretty much tell people the law, try to calmly persuade them to go away and come back to vote without it, and escalate anything serious to 911, who have been prepped for this.)
I’ve been doing this 20 years and I don’t think I’ve ever seen a firearm in a polling place except an active duty police officer in uniform coming in to #vote.
#election2024 #electionday #uspol
https://law.lis.virginia.gov/vacode/title24.2/chapter6/section24.2-604/
@Susan_Larson_TN@mastodon.onlineFinal #Polls Before #ElectionDay Have #VP #KamalaHarris Beating #ConvictedFelon #DonaldTrump In Most #SwingStates.
Coupled with stunning #polling #results out of #Iowa, the #findings suggest Harris may have a more viable path to #winning the election-deciding 270 #ElectoralCollege #votes than previously indicated.
“That’s driven by the strength of independent women, who back Harris by a 28-point margin.”
“[S]enior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%.”
Re: Nate Cohn’s new article on polling accuracy.
Angry Staffer says
"Basically, pollsters are terrified of being wrong again, so they’re flat-out ignoring “very blue” results.
As a result, pollsters are more willing to take steps to produce more Republican-leaning results.
They’re intentionally watering down the aggregate and making this race look deadlocked across the board. It’s crazy.
And it’s going to feed into Trump’s rigged election claims if Harris wins in a landslide"
#Polling sucks
GB OPINION POLL
PM approval ratings at this point in their tenure by #YouGov:
Keir Starmer: -22% (26% doing well/56% doing badly)
Rishi Sunak: -24% (29%/53%) Liz Truss*: -60% (11%/71%) Boris Johnson: -9% (40%/49%) Theresa May: +24% (46%/22%) David Cameron: +27% (59%/32%) Gordon Brown: +30% (59%/29%)
Polling as of 21 October 2024.
* Liz Truss was out of office by this point so this figure was her final approval rating.
Ipsos CEO Darrell Bricker says polls show Canadians are tired of Trudeau and muses if the Libs are finally done for this time.
In the runup to the last election, Ipsos ran a panel titled “Paths to federal election victory" at a big do for oil execs & their lobbyists and CPC MPs & their operatives alongside disgraced US election fiddler Mike Roman.
We see you, Ipsos. #cdnpoli #polling
Very good newsletter out this morning from @jaykuo — a reality check on #polling manipulation. The upshot:
Stop 
paying attention to flawed polling
Instead, do the hard work of #GOTV-ing in these last few weeks of the election.
“It’s Manipulation, Plain and Simple”
https://open.substack.com/pub/statuskuo/p/its-manipulation-plain-and-simple?r=bwmg&utm_medium=ios
#HarrisWalz2024 #KamalaHarris #USpol #YesWeKam #VoteBlue @KamalaHarrisWin
@benroyce@mastodon.sociala quick note on #polls #polling in the #uselection #election2024 #us #usa #america #election
#trump ahead:
"it's not worth it, i'm not #voting"
trump and #harris tied:
"oh bother, why is it so close, this is depressing, i'm not going to #vote"
harris ahead:
"oh they have the #votes, they don't need me, i'm not showing up"
no, no, no, no, no
it doesn't matter what the bullshit out there in the #media
you vote
period
only one #poll counts, and it is november 5
VOTE!
@Susan_Larson_TN@mastodon.online#NYT #Battleground #Poll: #SwingStateVoters #Support #Affirming #Trans #People's True #Sex.
#BattlegroundState #Polling in #Michigan, #Ohio, and #Wisconsin of #likelyvoters shows they #believe #society should #accept #trans #people for who they are. The poll underscores a #shift in #public #opinion toward greater #acceptance.
#Women #Transgender #LGBTQ #LGBTQIA #Politics #Elections #Society #Representation #Culture
https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/nyt-battleground-poll-swing-state
@Susan_Larson_TN@mastodon.onlineWhat #polling #shows about #Black #voters’ #views of #Democratic #Presidential #Nominee #KamalaHarris and #ConvictedFelon #DonaldTrump
Black registered voters have an overwhelmingly positive view of Vice President Kamala Harris.
https://apnews.com/article/harris-trump-election-black-voters-biden-78e344ddea4886dd23582f4a51eb0da6
Canada polling, politics
It appears Angus Reid remains the 9th most important #pollster on 338Canada.Com! This despite Angus Reid regularly posting anti-Trudeau sentiment (even doctored video), pro-anti-vaxx content, anti-trans (did a poll, too)…
Feb 2, 2024
Nov 15, 2023
Oct 18, 2023
Sep 20, 2023
Jan 31, 2022…
And they trust this strongly opinionated person to provide useful data? Where is the #methodology?
Yeah, I !trust 338 as much as I !trust Angus Reid.
@Susan_Larson_TN@mastodon.online#VicePresident #KamalaHarris Could Become First #Democratic #Presidential #Nominee To Secure the #Senior #Vote Since #AlGore.
Recent #polling shows Harris leading #ConvictedFelon #DonaldTrump among #seniors.
#Women #Transgender #LGBTQ #LGBTQIA #Politics #DemocraticParty #Allies #Conservatives #Extremism #Fascism #RepublicanParty #ThePartyOfHate #Megathread
https://www.blackenterprise.com/kamala-harris-democratic-presidential-nominee-senior-vote/
@Susan_Larson_TN@mastodon.onlineThis is why you can't believe #polls claiming Trump is supposedly leading #VicePresident #KamalaHarris.
#Rasmussen Found To Be Secretly #Colluding With the #TrumpCampaign.
"Leaked emails reveal the truth about #RasmussenReports and how the Trump campaign is breaking #election #law."
#USPolitics #Polling #Conservatives #Extremism #Fascism #RepublicanParty #ThePartyOfHate
https://crooksandliars.com/2024/09/rasmussen-found-be-secretly-colluding
