#Oil has yo-yoed both on supply-&-demand issues but also the #MiddleEast ceasefires between #Israel & #Hamas & #Hezbollah that already look under threat.

Q2 doesn't look like it is going to get any easier on the whole.

#Trump will be detailing his grand #global #tariff plan he has dubbed ‘liberation day' on Wednesday. For investors, the big question is whether it will end up triggering #recessions.

At the bottom of the FX pile are #Turkey's #lira & the #Indonesian #rupiah. The former is down nearly 7%, much of it after #Erdogan's main political rival was detained last week.

The rupiah, meanwhile, has hit its lowest since the 1998 Asian financial crisis amid worries about #Jakarta's finances & that it is sliding back towards #military domination.

"The #dollar view has unravelled very quickly this year," said State Street Global Markets' Michael Metcalfe. "I think there has been an element of take what was said at the start of the year & just flip it."

Just as jarring, the 'Magnificent Seven' #US #tech giants have been hit for 6. They have been a cash cow for portfolios for years but have shed nearly $2T & been left for dust by #Chinese rivals & #Europe's defense firms.

@GottaLaff

Future headline:

"German economy booms as US falls into deep #trumpcession "

"Other Fox personalities have been warning of a downturn or a recession. Meanwhile, a new NBC poll finds Trump’s approval on the economy is sinking. Yet he’s forging ahead with his tariffs and rarely bothers talking about the economy anymore."

#Musk #Trump #economy #tariffs #Trumpcession #stagflation #PriceofEggs #FoxNews
/2

"In two months, the United States has experienced the worst outbreak of measles in decades. The stock markets have suffered heavy losses. Prices of household items and food have risen.

In two months, the United States has become more of a pariah than a partner concerning human rights, global security, environmental protection, and goodwill."

#Musk #Trump #measles #economy #tariffs #StockMarket #PriceofEggs #stagflation #Trumpcession #HumanRights #environment #GlobalSecurity
/3

First question: how much of the higher inflation forecast is due to #TrumpTariffs?

#JeromePowell:

"It is going to be very difficult to have a precise assessment of how much of inflation is coming from #tariffs…. clearly some of it [#inflation], a good part of it is, is coming from tariffs.”

"But we'll be working & so will other forecasters to try to find the best possible way to separate non-tariff inflation from tariff inflation."

"The #Fed is as lost in the wilderness as the rest of us trying to decipher the continual shifts in #EconomicPolicy from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue," said #Inflation Insights' Omair Sharif, referring to the street address of the White House.

"Beyond the cut to median growth this year & the boost to median inflation, the most telling aspect of the (projections) is the shift higher in #uncertainty."

#JeromePowell on #tariffs

"Some near-term measures of #inflation expectations have recently moved up. We see this in both market & survey-based measures, & survey respondents, both consumers & businesses, are mentioning tariffs as a driving factor."

The potential to more than double the scope of #Trump’s #tariffs has alarmed economists & some congressional #Republicans, while other WH allies are concerned about the logistical challenges of a complicated new #import #tax regime. The precise nature of these new duties has spurred extensive discussions at the highest levels of the admin, w/VP #JDVance, #Commerce Secy #HowardLutnick, WH aide #PeterNavarro & #Treasury Secy #ScottBessent all playing a role in the talks….